The “wall of mortgage renewals”: what you need to know this autumn

If you took out your mortgage in 2021 or 2022, during a period of historically low rates, your renewal may be approaching — and the shock could be real. This is the topic that comes up most often in my conversations with clients these days, and for good reason: tens of thousands of Quebec homeowners are moving this fall from a rate contracted below 2% to rates around 4% today. Here is where things stand, and how to approach this moment without panicking.

Where rates stand right now

The Bank of Canada kept its overnight rate at 2.25% in its decision last September 2, the seventh consecutive hold. The reason: inflation is still a bit high (around 3% in July, above the 2% target), in a context of American rates weighing on the Canadian economy. Markets expect another status quo at the next decision, on October 28.

Concretely, this translates to mortgage rates hovering around 4.2% to 4.3% for a 5-year fixed, and about 3.5% to 3.6% for a 5-year variable (best insured rates available as of early September). These are the figures you should keep in mind if your renewal is approaching.

These rates change rapidly — I invite you to always confirm the exact numbers with me when you prepare your file rather than relying on a general average.

A market that is rebalancing

On the real estate side, the latest data for August show a market clearly rebalancing in favor of buyers, both in the Montreal area and in Quebec City: active listings have surged (+18% in Montreal, +27% in Quebec City year over year), while sales are slowing slightly. Selling times are lengthening, particularly for condos. Good news if you are a buyer: you have more choices and a little more room for negotiation than a year ago.

Three things to do if your renewal is approaching

First, never sign the renewal offer automatically sent by your institution without having compared it. Banks often send an offer that isn’t the most competitive on the market.

Next, start shopping 4 to 6 months before the maturity. This gives you time to compare lenders and, if needed, lock in a rate.

Finally, if the payment shock concerns you, we can look together at options such as extending the amortization or adjusting the type of rate (fixed or variable) according to your risk tolerance — there is no universal right answer, only what fits your situation.

Personalized support

Each file is different, and the general figures above do not replace an analysis of your precise situation. Whether you are renewing, buying your first property, or considering refinancing, I am here to shop for the best terms in your name, at no cost to you.

Feel free to contact me to discuss — it’s better to prepare too early than too late.

Sources: Bank of Canada (decision of September 2, 2026), nesto.ca (rates as of September 4, 2026), APCIQ (residential market statistics, August 2026, Montreal and Quebec City CMA).